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The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators.
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy.
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the global economy is designed to timely and accurately predict cyclical movements in global economic activity.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.4 percent in May 2024 to 112.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in April. The CEI grew 0.6 percent over the six-month period ending May 2024, down from its 1.0 percent increase over the previous six months.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ® (LEI) for the United States has long been lauded as a reliable leading indicator of recessions, and recent data suggest that the LEI is signaling an approaching recession.